Longitudinal and self-attributed change in alcohol use among young adults during the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic introduced a unique concern regarding the potential for pandemic-related increases in alcohol use. However, most studies which have measured pandemic-related changes to date utilise self-attribution measures of changes in alcohol use using cross-sectional designs, which rely on accurate self-attributions for validity. There has been minimal investigation of correspondence of self-attributed and longitudinally measured changes in alcohol use during the pandemic. The current study seeks to examine this correspondence. METHODS: A total of 856 participants originally recruited from Australian secondary schools completed follow-up surveys of an ongoing study at two timepoints (2018-2019, mean age 18.6 and 2020-2021, mean age 19.9; 65.3% female). Alcohol use was measured as any drinking (1+ drinks) and binge drinking (5+ drinks) frequency in the past 6 months. The correspondence and relationship between 'longitudinal change' measured from the first to the second timepoint and 'self-attributed change' measured at the second timepoint were examined. RESULTS: For both any drinking and binge drinking frequency, moderate correspondence was observed between self-attributed and longitudinal change in drinking (37.1% and 39.3%). Most participants with longitudinal increases in any drinking or binge drinking frequency failed to correctly self-attribute this increase. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that self-attributed increases do not correspond well with longitudinally measured increases in pandemic-related drinking and may underestimate increases measured longitudinally. Method of measurement needs to be taken into account if data are to be used to identify sub-groups at risk of alcohol use increases and facilitate appropriate direction of public health efforts.

Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 during the first three waves in Scotland: a national record linkage study.

BACKGROUND: The early COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland-defined as the era before widespread access to vaccination and monoclonal antibody treatment-can be characterised into three distinct waves: March-July 2020, July 2020-April 2021 and May-August 2021. Each wave was met with various societal restrictions in an effort to reduce disease transmission and associated morbidity and mortality. Understanding the epidemiology of infections during these waves can provide valuable insights into future pandemic planning. METHODS: Scottish RT-PCR testing data reported up until 8 August 2021, the day prior to most restrictions being lifted in Scotland, were included. Demographic characteristics including age, sex and social deprivation associated with transmission, morbidity and mortality were compared across waves. A case-control analysis for each wave was then modelled to further compare risk factors associated with death over time. RESULTS: Of the 349 904 reported cases, there were 18 099, 197 251 and 134 554 in waves 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Hospitalisations, intensive care unit admissions and deaths appeared highest in wave 2, though risk factors associated with COVID-19 death remained similar across the waves. Higher deprivation and certain comorbidities were associated with higher deaths in all waves. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the higher number of cases reported in waves 2 and 3, case fatality rates were lower: likely a combination of improved detection of infections in younger age groups, introduction of social measures and vaccination. Higher social deprivation and comorbidities resulted in higher deaths for all waves.

Measuring progress towards reaching zero new HIV acquisitions among key populations in Québec (Canada) using routine surveillance data: a mathematical modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: Men who have sex with men (MSM) and people who inject drugs (PWID) are disproportionately impacted by the HIV epidemic in Canada. Having the second-highest provincial diagnosis rate, an improved understanding of the epidemic among these populations in Québec could aid ongoing elimination efforts. We estimated HIV incidence and other epidemic indicators among MSM and PWID in Montréal and across Québec using a back-calculation model synthesizing surveillance data. METHODS: We developed a deterministic, compartmental mathematical model stratified by age, HIV status and disease progression, and clinical care stages. Using AIDS and HIV diagnoses data, including self-reported time since the last negative test and laboratory results of CD4 cell count at diagnosis, we estimated HIV incidence in each population over 1975-2020 by modelling a cubic M-spline. The prevalence, undiagnosed fraction, fraction diagnosed that started antiretroviral treatment (ART) and median time to diagnosis were also estimated. Since the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted testing, we excluded 2020 data and explored this in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: HIV incidence in all populations peaked early in the epidemic. In 2020, an estimated 97 (95% CrI: 33-227) and 266 (95% CrI: 103-508) HIV acquisitions occurred among MSM in Montréal and Québec, respectively. Among PWID, we estimated 2 (95% CrI: 0-14) and 6 (95% CrI: 1-26) HIV acquisitions in those same regions. With 2020 data, unless testing rates were reduced by 50%, these estimates decreased, except among Québec PWID, whose increased. Among all, the median time to diagnosis shortened to <2 years before 2020 and the undiagnosed fraction decreased to <10%. This fraction was higher in younger MSM, with 22% of 15-24 year-olds living with HIV in Montréal (95% CrI: 9-39%) and 31% in Québec (95% CrI: 17-48%) undiagnosed by 2020 year-end. Finally, ART access neared 100% in all diagnosed populations. CONCLUSIONS: HIV incidence has drastically decreased in MSM and PWID across Québec, alongside significant improvements in diagnosis and treatment coverage-and the 2013 introduction of pre-exposure prophylaxis. Despite this, HIV transmission continued. Effective efforts to halt this transmission and rapidly diagnose people who acquired HIV, especially among younger MSM, are needed to achieve elimination. Further, as the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV transmission are understood, increased efforts may be needed to overcome these.

Barbiturate-related hospitalisations, drug treatment episodes, and deaths in Australia, 2000-2018.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the characteristics and population rates of barbiturate-related hospitalisations, treatment episodes, and deaths in Australia, 2000-2018. DESIGN, SETTING: Analysis of national data on barbiturate-related hospitalisations (National Hospital Morbidity Database, 1999-2000 to 2017-18), drug treatment episodes (Alcohol and Other Drug Treatment Services National Minimum Data Set, 2002-03 to 2017-18), and deaths (National Coronial Information System, 2000-01 to 2016-17). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Population rates directly age-standardised to the 2001 Australian standard population; average annual percentage change (AAPC) in rates estimated by Joinpoint regression. RESULTS: We identified 1250 barbiturate-related hospitalisations (791 cases of deliberate self-harm [63%]), 993 drug treatment episodes (195 cases with barbiturates as the principal drug of concern [20%]), and 511 deaths during the respective analysis periods. The barbiturate-related hospitalisation rate declined from 0.56 in 1999-2000 to 0.14 per 100 000 population in 2017-18 (AAPC, -6.0%; 95% CI, -7.2% to -4.8%); the declines in hospitalisations related to accidental poisoning (AAPC, -5.8%; 95% CI, -9.1% to -2.4%) and intentional self-harm (AAPC, -5.6%; 95% CI, -6.9% to -4.2%) were each statistically significant. Despite a drop from 0.67 in 2002-03 to 0.23 per 100 000 in 2003-04, the drug treatment episode rate did not decline significantly (AAPC, -6.7%; 95% CI, -16% to +4.0%). The population rate of barbiturate-related deaths increased from 0.07 in 2000-01 to 0.19 per 100 000 population in 2016-17 (AAPC, +9.3%; 95% CI, +6.2-12%); the rate of intentional self-harm deaths increased (AAPC, +11%; 95% CI, +7.4-15%), but not that of accidental deaths (AAPC, -0.3%; 95% CI, -4.1% to +3.8%). CONCLUSIONS: While prescribing and community use of barbiturates has declined, the population rate of intentional self-harm using barbiturates has increased. The major harm associated with these drugs is now suicide.

Modelling direct and herd protection effects of vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Australia.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the outcomes of COVID-19 vaccination by vaccine type, age group eligibility, vaccination strategy, and population coverage. DESIGN: Epidemiologic modelling to assess the final size of a COVID-19 epidemic in Australia, with vaccination program (Pfizer, AstraZeneca, mixed), vaccination strategy (vulnerable first, transmitters first, untargeted), age group eligibility threshold (5 or 15 years), population coverage, and pre-vaccination effective reproduction number ( Reffv¯ ) for the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant as factors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections; cumulative hospitalisations, deaths, and years of life lost. RESULTS: Assuming Reffv¯ = 5, the current mixed vaccination program (vaccinating people aged 60 or more with the AstraZeneca vaccine and people under 60 with the Pfizer vaccine) will not achieve herd protection unless population vaccination coverage reaches 85% by lowering the vaccination eligibility age to 5 years. At Reffv¯ = 3, the mixed program could achieve herd protection at 60-70% population coverage and without vaccinating 5-15-year-old children. At Reffv¯ = 7, herd protection is unlikely to be achieved with currently available vaccines, but they would still reduce the number of COVID-19-related deaths by 85%. CONCLUSION: Vaccinating vulnerable people first is the optimal policy when population vaccination coverage is low, but vaccinating more socially active people becomes more important as the Reffv¯ declines and vaccination coverage increases. Assuming the most plausible Reffv¯ of 5, vaccinating more than 85% of the population, including children, would be needed to achieve herd protection. Even without herd protection, vaccines are highly effective in reducing the number of deaths.

How well did Norwegian general practice prepare to address the COVID-19 pandemic?

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to describe the quality improvement measures made by Norwegian general practice (GP) during the COVID-19 pandemic, evaluate the differences in quality improvements based on region and assess the combinations of actions taken. DESIGN: Descriptive study. SETTING: Participants were included after taking part in an online quality improvement COVID-19 course for Norwegian GPs in April 2020. The participants reported whether internal and external measures were in place: COVID-19 sign on entrance, updated home page, access to video consultations and/or electronic written consultations, home office solutions, separate working teams, preparedness for home visits, isolation rooms, knowledge on decontamination, access to sufficient supplies of personal protective equipment (PPE) and COVID-19 clinics. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred GP offices were included. The mean number of general practitioners per office was 5.63. RESULTS: More than 80% of practices had the following preparedness measures: COVID-19 sign on entrance, updated home page, COVID-19 clinic in the municipality, video and written electronic consultations, knowledge on how to use PPE, and home office solutions for general practitioners. Less than 50% had both PPE and knowledge of decontamination. Lack of PPE was reported by 37%, and 34% reported neither sufficient PPE nor a dedicated COVID-19 clinic. 15% reported that they had an isolation room, but not enough PPE. There were no geographical differences. CONCLUSIONS: Norwegian GPs in this study implemented many quality improvements to adapt to the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, the largest potentials for improvement seem to be securing sufficient supply of PPE and establishing an isolation room at their practices.